Khadijat Busola Amolegbe
Khadijat Busola Amolegbe is a Senior Lecturer at the University of Ilorin, Nigeria, and a Principal Investigator on a USAID funded project under the Feed the Future MRR Innovation Lab’s Advancing Local Leadership, Innovation and Networks (ALL-IN) program at the University of California Davis. Khadijat is also an economist (Extended Term Consultant) at the World Bank Africa Gender Innovation (GIL). Her research interest lies at the intersection of agriculture and development economics, covering topics on food security, poverty, women’s empowerment, climate change, and digital economy. She has conducted field experiments and mixed method research projects leading to institutional publications. She was a visiting researcher at Cornell University, Oxford University, the International Institute of Tropical Agriculture (IITA) and the Nordic Africa Institute (NAI). Khadijat holds a Ph.D. in Agricultural Economics from the University of Ilorin, Nigeria.
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Khadijat Busola Amolegbe is a Senior Lecturer at the University of Ilorin, Nigeria, and a Principal Investigator on a USAID funded project under the Feed the Future MRR Innovation Lab’s Advancing Local Leadership, Innovation and Networks (ALL-IN) program at the University of California Davis. Khadijat is also an economist (Extended Term Consultant) at the World Bank Africa Gender Innovation (GIL). Her research interest lies at the intersection of agriculture and development economics, covering topics on food security, poverty, women’s empowerment, climate change, and digital economy. She has conducted field experiments and mixed method research projects leading to institutional publications. She was a visiting researcher at Cornell University, Oxford University, the International Institute of Tropical Agriculture (IITA) and the Nordic Africa Institute (NAI). Khadijat holds a Ph.D. in Agricultural Economics from the University of Ilorin, Nigeria.
In their own words…
IEA – Can you tell us a little bit about your life story, what got you interested in economics, and how you decided to pursue an academic career?
Khadijat – I was born in Nigeria to a family that valued education and intellectual curiosity. I grew up surrounded by relatives who excelled in their respective fields. My father was a lecturer, and I often followed him to his office. I was intrigued by the way he interacted with his students. I enjoyed playing with numbers and charts on his computer, as well as pretending to teach my imaginary students. I was never short of inspiration and always knew I would pursue an academic research career like my father.
My interest in economics sparked early in life. I grew up in a small community where families were closely knit, and everyone knew each other, creating a true sense of communal life. I heard stories about how various institutions in the community were built through the collective effort of the indigenes. I observed how people strived to contribute to the community’s growth and development, whether through donations to build hospitals or young graduates volunteering to teach in schools. I benefited from some of these efforts, as I attended free summer school programs during my secondary school education. I was fascinated by how collective actions led to the provision of public goods that encouraged growth and development for all. Residents in this community worked as petty traders, small-scale farmers, or provided services at the only tertiary institution in the area. This got me thinking about the different types of economic activities within an economy and how they contribute to overall economic development. As a result, it was going to be Economics or Engineering for me because of my love for mathematics and physics, and my dream to join the effort in transforming my community.
I eventually had my undergraduate education in agricultural economics, but the defining moment was during my National Youth Service Corps (NYSC), which is a compulsory one-year internship program for college graduates in Nigeria. During this period, I worked at the Central Bank of Nigeria and was involved in designing key projects aimed at alleviating poverty and fostering sustainable growth in the country. This experience deepened my understanding of the impact that economic policies and actions have on the development and well-being of citizens. It connected my childhood observations and experiences with the broader economic principles that could transform societies. With a determination to contribute to my country’s progress, I continued my studies and eventually earned a PhD in Agricultural Economics, with a focus on development, food security, and rural digitalization.
IEA – In your recent work you study the relationship between food price volatility and household food security in Nigeria. Can you briefly summarize your findings? What made you interested in this topic?
Khadijat – This is a joint work with some colleagues at Cornell, and we explored how an unexpected increase in the price of food is linked to the food security status of households in Nigeria. By unexpected increase, we mean an unanticipated, non-seasonal rise in price, which is often unaccounted for even in policy design and programming. Most studies have explored the impact of seasonal food price shocks, and many interventions are often targeted at helping households smooth consumption during seasonal shocks.
We focused on price volatility in the rice market, examining both imported and locally produced rice. Our interest in rice is justified, as it is a crucial staple in Nigeria, consumed by nearly all households. Moreover, a popular saying suggests that no event is complete without Nigerian jollof, and households prepare a variety of meals using rice. Consequently, the demand for rice is high and exceeds the capacity of local production, necessitating the importation of rice, predominantly from Asia. Our study was conducted during a period of significant trade restrictions, such as the ban on importing certain food items like rice, which led to a sharp increase in rice prices. Concurrently, the government made substantial investments to bolster the local rice industry, including initiatives like the Anchor Borrowers’ Programme (ABP) aimed at supporting rural farmers. It was essential for us to analyze the rice market dynamics and assess the food security status of households, considering the availability of more affordable substitutes such as maize, sorghum, and millet. Thus, we combined the World Bank Living Standards Measurement Study (LSMS) Panel for Nigeria with time series food price data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
We found interesting results that are still very much relevant today. We found that the prices of imported and local rice move together but are larger for imported rice. However, the price of local rice is driven by fluctuations in imported rice prices, which could be attributed to various macroeconomic events like the fluctuation in the global oil markets and the depreciation of the naira against the dollar. We also found that rice consumption and production vary by wealth, with wealthy households 1.2 times more likely to be consumers than the poorest, while poor households are 7.4 times more likely to be producers than the wealthiest. Our results were consistent with Engel’s Law and Bennett’s Law, as wealthy households spend a smaller portion of their income on food and consume a more diversified diet, respectively. However, an unexpected increase in the price of imported rice leaves households across all wealth strata worse off, with households consuming about one food group less and spending 6% more on food with a 100 naira increase in price. Surprisingly, an unexpected increase in the price of locally produced rice improves household food security, albeit slightly. Although one may attribute this to some income mechanism where rice producers benefit from higher prices, we found that the effects were driven by consumers who may have substituted imported rice for local rice.
Thus, given the results, our suggestion is on the need for policymakers to stabilize the macroeconomic environment and be cautious when enacting policies that may increase food price volatility, including protectionist trade and exchange rate policies.
IEA – You published a book on economic shocks and welfare of Nigerian households. Can you briefly tell us what this book is about?
Khadijat – This chapter in the book “Socioeconomic Shocks and Africa’s Development Agenda,” was conceived during the COVID-19 pandemic and explores the cumulative effects of economic shocks on the per capita consumption and food and non-food expenditures of Nigerian households.
Nigerian households, like many in the region, are vulnerable to a variety of shocks, with the pandemic intensifying these issues. The chapter discusses five broad categories of shocks: agricultural (such as pest infestation), financial (like food price increases or business failures), weather (such as flooding), health (including the death of a working household member), and other types (such as divorce). The severity and combination of these shocks vary among households, as do the coping strategies they employ, which depend on the resources available to them. The chapter outlines six main groups of coping strategies. About 10% of the households employ financial measures like borrowing from friends and relatives, while 8.9% use safety net measures like receiving assistance from government or non-government agencies. Other measures employed include expenditure cut like withdrawing children from school, liquidity measures like selling of assets and diversifying to other income generating activities.
We found that, on average, households experiencing agricultural shocks incur a welfare loss of approximately 5% in per capita consumption, while weather-related shocks result in an average loss of 4.69%. These shocks impact both urban and rural households, with agricultural shocks notably leading to reduced non-food expenditures, such as on education, health, and clothing. However, the effects of health and financial shocks on households appear to be minimal after accounting for the coping strategies they use. Therefore, we recommend investing in policies that enhance the adaptive capacity of resource-poor households, particularly concerning the impacts of agricultural and weather-related shocks. This research also highlights the need for further investigation into how policies can more effectively bolster household resilience against various shocks.
IEA – Why is this research relevant today?
Khadijat – My work on economic and food price shocks is highly relevant in the context of Nigeria’s escalating poverty rates and food security issues. Over the past decade, these problems have intensified, with Nigeria experiencing some of the highest poverty rates in the world.
Nearly half of the Nigerian population lives below the national poverty line, with more individuals falling into poverty each day. This situation has been exacerbated by policy decisions such as the unification of the dollar exchange rate and the controversial removal of fuel subsidies, which were implemented without adequate measures to help households maintain stable consumption levels. As a result, food prices have surged, and a growing number of families cannot afford even a basic meal. Additionally, agricultural productivity is hindered by weather-related shocks and increased security issues that prevent farmers from accessing their land, further complicating the country’s welfare challenges. The economy is still struggling to recover from the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, and deteriorating macroeconomic stability poses additional risks to households.
Though my research does not account for some of the current shocks facing the Nigerian economy, the findings could inform policymakers about the potential impacts of similar shocks. To effectively address these challenges, it is imperative for the government to focus on evidence-based policies that support the most vulnerable populations, reinforce the social safety net, and invest in the agricultural sector to mitigate the adverse effects of economic and food price shocks, thereby providing a more stable foundation for the country’s socioeconomic development.
IEA – Why is it important for economic research to be racially diverse and inclusive?
Khadijat – Definitely! Inclusivity and racial diversity in economic research enrich the field significantly. As an African-based researcher, I have benefited from efforts to make economic research inclusive. Programs like the Structural Transformation of African Agriculture and Rural Spaces (STAARS) and the Partnership for Economic Policy (PEP) are commendable for matching scholars from the Global South with peers in top institutions in the Global North to conduct rigorous, policy-oriented research. These collaborations have exposed me to new frontiers in economic research and granted me access to networks that were previously beyond my reach, given my educational background. Additionally, there is a multiplying effect as I impart newfound knowledge to my students in Nigeria, equipping them to better compete on a global scale.
Making economic research diverse and inclusive offers immense benefits to all involved. Researchers from the Global South, such as myself, receive mentorship and exposure to cutting-edge research techniques, while our counterparts from the North gain valuable insights into local contexts and a deeper understanding of economic policy implementation. This exchange broadens the research perspective, allowing for a wide range of experiences and perspectives that can lead to more comprehensive and innovative approaches to understanding and dealing with economic problems in Africa. Also, research that includes diverse perspectives is more likely to address the needs and concerns of a wider segment of the population, making the findings more relevant and applicable to diverse communities.
With many development economists from the Global North doing research and testing new research ideas and hypotheses in Africa, I am glad that there are also increasing efforts to decolonize the economics profession and amplify the voices of African-based researchers.
Disclaimer: Please note that the views expressed herein are my own and do not necessarily reflect the official position of any institutions with which I am associated